The natural history of cigarette smoking from adolescence to adulthood in a midwestern community sample: Multiple trajectories and their psychosocialcorrelates

Previous research on the natural history of smoking has focused on overall group trajectories without considering the possibility of risk subgroup var iation. To address this limitation, the authors of the present study aimed to identify subgroups with Varying trajectories of smoking behavior. The au thors accomplished this within a cohort-sequential study of a large communi ty sample (N = 8,556) with measurements spanning ages 11-31. After removing 2 a priori groups (abstainers and erratics), the authors empirically ident ified 4 trajectory groups-early stable smokers, late stable smokers, experi menters, and quitters-and psychosocial variables from adolescence and young adulthood were significantly distinguished among them. Given recent advanc es in quantitative methods, it is now feasible to consider subgroups of tra jectories within an overall longitudinal design.