Recent genome mapping projects in tetraploid plant species require a method
for analysing the segregation patterns of molecular marker loci in these s
pecies. The present study presents a theoretical model and a statistical an
alysis for predicting the genotypes of a pair of tetraploid parents at a co
dominant (for example, RFLPs, microsatellites) or dominant (for example, AF
LPs, RAPDs) molecular marker locus based on their and their progeny's pheno
types scored at that locus (gel-band patterns). The theory allows for null
alleles and for any degree of double-reduction to be modelled. A simulation
study was performed to investigate the properties of the theoretical model
. This showed that in many circumstances both the parental genotypes can be
correctly identified with a probability of nearly 1, even when the molecul
ar data were complicated by null alleles or double-reduction. Configuration
s where the parental genotype cannot be identified are discussed. The power
to detect double-reduction varies considerably, depending on the proportio
n of identical alleles carried and shared by the parents, and the number of
null alleles. Incorrect deductions of the occurrence of double-reduction w
ere rare. The method was applied to data on a microsatellite locus segregat
ing in the parents and 74 offspring of a tetraploid potato cross. Twentyfou
r parental configurations were consistent with the parental gel pattern, bu
t only one of these was compatible with all the phenotypic data on the offs
pring. The feasibility for extending the present model to predict segregati
on of several linked loci, and particularly the linkage phase, is briefly d
iscussed.