Early adult outcomes of adolescent binge drinking: Person- and variable-centered analyses of binge drinking trajectories

Background: Many studies of the consequences of binge drinking take a varia ble-centered approach that may mask developmentally different trajectories. Recent studies have reported qualitatively different binge drinking trajec tories in young adulthood. However, analyses of developmental trajectories of binge drinking have not been examined for an important period of drinkin g development: adolescence. The purpose of this study was to examine young adult outcomes of adolescent binge drinking using an approach that combines person-centered and variable-centered methods. Methods: Data were from the Seattle Social Development Project, an ethnical ly diverse, gender balanced sample (n = 808) followed prospectively from ag e 10 to age 21. Semiparametric group-based modeling was used to determine g roups of binge drinking trajectories in adolescence. Logistic regression wa s used to examine how well the trajectory groups predicted young adult outc omes after demographics, childhood measures, and adolescent drug use were c onsidered. Results: Four distinct trajectories of binge drinking during adolescence we re identified: Early Highs, increasers, Late Onsetters, and Nonbingers. The se trajectories significantly predicted positive and negative outcomes in a dulthood after controlling for demographic characteristics, early proxy mea sures of the outcome, and adolescent drug use. Conclusions: This integrated person- and variable-centered approach provide s more information about the effects of specific patterns of binge drinking than studies that employ variable-centered methods alone.