Kk. Bucholz et al., Transitions in drinking in adolescent females: Evidence from the Missouri Adolescent Female Twin Study, ALC CLIN EX, 24(6), 2000, pp. 914-923
Background: Data from adult community samples indicate that alcohol depende
nce originates in late adolescence, thus marking that period as a fruitful
one for the study of transitions in drinking.
Methods: Using retrospective data about the timing of alcohol symptom onset
from 1799 female twins who participated in the Missouri Adolescent Female
Twin Study (MOAFTS), we integrated person-centered TPC) and variable-center
ed (VC) analyses to study 1-year transitions in alcohol symptomatology. A p
erson-year data set reflecting the onset of 15 alcohol dependence symptoms
was constructed, with each year in the young woman's life from the year of
her first drink to her current age counting as one observation. Latent clas
s analysis-a PC technique-identified classes of alcohol symptomatology for
each person-year, and a lag function was used to identify class membership
1 year earlier. One-year transitions in drinking-a VC analysis-were then st
udied.
Results: Smoking, marijuana use, and conduct problems were consistent promo
ters of transitions to more severe drinking classes, but depressed affect w
as not a significant predictor, Parental history of alcohol problems or exc
essive drinking, particularly maternal history, was a significant predictor
of more serious transitions to moderate and dependent problem drinking.
Conclusions: These data confirm that even over a 1-year time frame there wa
s considerable change in drinking patterns in this adolescent sample. Smoki
ng was as potent a risk factor as conduct problems in promoting the progres
sion of alcohol symptomatology, and the role of familial factors was found
to be influential in transitions at the more severe end of the drinking spe
ctrum.