Understanding inference as a source of knowledge: Children's ability to evaluate the certainty of deduction, perception, and guessing

Three experiments investigated children's understanding of inference as a s ource of knowledge. Children observed a puppet make a statement about the c olor of one of two hidden toys after the puppet (a) looked directly at the toy (looking), (b) looked at the other top (inference), or (c) looked at ne ither toy (guessing). Most 4-, 5-, and 6-year-olds did not rate the puppet as bring more certain of the toy's color after the puppet looked directly a t it or inferred its color than they did after the puppet guessed its color . Most 8-and 9-year-olds distinguished inference and looking from guessing. The tendency to explain the puppet's knowledge by referring to inference i ncreased with age. Children who referred to inference in their explanations were more likely to judge deductive inference as more certain than guessin g.