Prediction of the quality and quantity of Maramec spring water

Our ability to predict the response of large karstic basins to contaminant pulses and recharge events is limited due to an inability to model flow thr ough these highly hetereogeneous and anisotropic basins. The linear systems technique is useful for simulating hydrologic processes occurring in karst ic basins because detailed knowledge about the internal structure of the ba sin is not required. The objectives of this study were to predict changes i n the quantity and quality of spring water in a large karstic basin using t he linear systems approach. Using a dimensionless unit hydrograph, the chan ge in quantity of spring water was predicted and the correlation coefficien t, r, between predicted and observed discharges was 0.94. A nonpoint source kernel was used to predict the change in the specific conductance of the s pring mater (r = 0.97), A point-source kernel derived from a quantitative d ye trace was used to predict the first arrival and dispersion of a contamin ant at the spring (r = 0.11), Even though the correlation coefficient is lo w. the prediction matched the first and last appearances of the contaminant , Quantitative dye traces can be used to predict the movement of aqueous co ntaminants through karstic aquifers using the linear systems approach. Give n the findings of this research, the linear systems approach is a useful pr edictive tool that would enable better management of ground water resources in karstic basins.