System dynamics modeling of reservoir operations for flood management

There exists a strong need to explore simulation techniques that not only r epresent complex dynamic systems in a realistic way but also allow the invo lvement of end users in model development to increase their confidence in t he modeling process. System dynamics, a feedback-based object-oriented simu lation approach, is presented for modeling reservoir operations. The increa sed speed of model development, the trust developed in the model due to use r participation, the possibility of group model development, and the effect ive communication of model results are main strengths of this approach. The ease of model modification in response to changes in the system and the ab ility to perform sensitivity analysis make this approach more attractive co mpared with systems analysis techniques for modeling reservoir operations. The proposed approach is applied to the Shellmouth reservoir on the Assinib oine River in Canada. Operating rules are developed for high flow/flood yea rs to minimize flooding. Alternative operating rules are explored by changi ng reservoir storage allocation and reservoir outflows. Impacts on the floo d management capacity of the reservoir are investigated by simulating a gat ed spillway in addition to an existing unregulated spillway. Sensitivity an alysis is performed on the reservoir levels at the start of the flood seaso n and the outflow from the reservoir.