Should Ganzfeld research continue to be crucial in the search for a replicable PSI effect? Part I. Discussion paper and introduction to an electronic-mail discussion
J. Milton, Should Ganzfeld research continue to be crucial in the search for a replicable PSI effect? Part I. Discussion paper and introduction to an electronic-mail discussion, J PARAPSYCH, 63(4), 1999, pp. 309-333
A group of recent, well-controlled ganzfeld studies failed to replicate the
positive findings of earlier work (Milton & Wiseman, 1999a). This presents
a challenge to claims that a ganzfeld psi effect can be replicated across
experimenters under methodologically stringent conditions. Because of the g
anzfeld's history as a focus for proof-oriented questions, this situation h
as implications for parapsychology as a whole. In this paper, it is shown t
hat replication of effect size in the recent ganzfeld studies is not demons
trated across experimenters, regardless of whether the database is updated
to include recent studies or whether outcome and cumulation statistics diff
erent from those preplanned are applied. Problems with interpreting as stro
ng evidence for psi other parapsychological meta-analyses of less clearly w
ell-conducted studies and apparently consistent process oriented findings a
re discussed. The case is made for continuing with ganzfeld research as an
important focus of parapsychology's claims for replicability. It is argued
that if there is a replicable ganzfeld psi effect, however, the procedures
necessary to produce it have not yet been identified. It is proposed that p
rocess-oriented work be directed to the goal of identifying which studies s
hould be able to replicate an above-chance effect, and that these studies,
identified by their planned procedures before they have been conducted, sho
uld provide the basis for future tests of replication.
The organization of an international, electronic-mail-discussion of these i
ssues among 41 researchers with a special interest in ganzfetd research is
described. The edited transcript of the discussion is presented in Part II.