Fitting population dynamics models to count and cull data using sequentialimportance sampling

For prudent wildlife management based on population dynamics models, it is important to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the management advice. Much parameter uncertainty originates when It Is not possible to parameteri ze the population management model for a population of interest using data from that population alone. Instead, information about parameter values obt ained from other populations of the same species, or even from similar spec ies, must be used. In addition, the age structure of wildlife populations i s generally unknown. We show how sequential importance sampling can be used for combining information on demographic processes, obtained from closely studied populations, with aggregated count and cull information from the po pulation to be managed. We resample parameter sets using kernel smoothing, which has the effect of perturbing parameter values. We show how the fitted model can be used to explore alternative culling strategies for red deer i n Scotland.