Climate change and agriculture in the Mid-Atlantic Region

Agriculture in the Mid-Atlantic Region, like agriculture worldwide, has an intrinsic relationship with climate. This article considers how climate cha nge might affect future Mid-Atlantic agriculture. Our assessment differs fr om prior work in 2 important ways. First, prior assessments have for the mo st part examined the impacts of future climate change on present-day agricu lture. neglecting the fact that agriculture is likely to change dramaticall y in the coming century independent of climate change. Second, previous ass essments have focused almost exclusively on the impacts of climate change o n agricultural production. Societal interest in agriculture, however, is mu ch broader than production because agriculture is a source of both rural am enities and negative environmental impacts. Our assessment suggests that Mi d-Atlantic crop and livestock production will probably not change significa ntly in either direction. There might be changes in the environmental impac ts of agricultural production and land use, but we currently lack evidence on the magnitudes and even directions of these changes. Given that agricult ure currently has significant negative impacts on water quality in many are as, including the Chesapeake Bay, this should be a high priority for resear ch. In addition, research is needed to understand climate impacts on agricu lture's contributions to wildlife habitat, rural landscape amenities and ca rbon sequestration.