What goes up: recent trends in China's energy consumption

Since 1996, China's energy output has dropped by 17%, while primary energy use has fallen by 4%, driven almost entirely by shrinking output from coal mines and declining direct use. Since China is the world's second-largest e mitter of greenhouse gases, it is important to understand the: sources of t his apparent transformation, and whether it portends a permanent change in patterns of energy use. This remarkable reversal of the long-term expansion of energy use has occurred even as the economy has continued to grow, albe it more slowly than in the early 1990s. Generation of electric power has ri sen, implying a steep fall in end uses, particularly in industry. Available information points to a variety of forces contributing to this phenomenon, including rapid improvements in coal quality, structural changes in indust ry, shutdowns of factories in both the state-owned and non-state segments o f the economy, improvements in end-use efficiency, and greater use of gas a nd electricity in households. A combination of slowing economic growth, ind ustrial restructuring, broader economic system reforms, and environmental a nd energy-efficiency policies has apparently led to at least a temporary de cline in, and perhaps a long-term reduction in the growth of energy use, an d therefore greenhouse gas emissions. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All ri ghts reserved.