Since the Soviet era Estonia inherited oil-shale-based electricity plants,
with a. capacity of 3000 MW. Oil shale now provides Estonia with very low e
lectricity prices. However, most of the stations are very old. Half of them
were built before 1965, and sooner or later the old oil shale production u
nits will have to be replaced. Estonia will then have to face serious incre
ases in electricity production prices. At the same time Estonia has problem
s in restoring its district heating systems. The prices are rising and many
consumers have converted to other heating sources such as electric heating
. The major long-term strategic policy choices to make in Estonia are to de
cide (1) whether the oil shale power stations should be replaced by new cen
tralized production units such as new oil shale stations or nuclear power,
or (2) whether the electricity production should be decentralized. In the c
entralized solution (oil shale or nuclear power), the domestic heating will
be left to boilers or electric heating leading to a very high primary ener
gy supply. In the decentralized solution, Estonia could benefit from the ad
vantage of cogeneration leading to very low fuel consumption. But this latt
er strategy depends on the restoration of the district heating systems. Thi
s article seeks to form a strategy to improve the efficiency of the Estonia
n energy system by increasing the use of cogeneration. (C) 2000 Elsevier Sc
ience Ltd. All rights reserved.