INSTITUTIONAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING PERFORMANCE OF THE UK ECONOMY

The accuracy of short-run macroeconomic forecasts for the UK economy i s analysed by examining institutional, human capital and model-based f actors. It is found that members of the Chancellor's panel of independ ent forecasters have a superior performance than other institutions, w hilst the higher education sector and research/consultancy organizatio ns have detrimental records. Additionally, non-monotonic relationships are found for the number of economists contributing to the forecast a nd the number of equations within the model. Moreover, with respect to the mean number of these factors currently employed by organizations in the sample, economies of scale exist in forecast accuracy. However, the attainment of a doctorate and the number of variables utilized re duce forecast accuracy.