1. The ratio of successive population censuses is often assumed to reflect
population growth rates. We identify three simple potential sources of bias
in the estimation of population growth rates that relate to either the tot
al number of censused individuals or the spatial areas over which censuses
are conducted.
2. The commonly used method of adding a constant to time series data to avo
id problems caused by division by zero can lead to underestimation of growt
h rates at low densities in increasing populations.
3. Variances associated with density estimates can lead to positive bias in
estimation of growth rates when populations are distributed in ephemeral p
atches. The spatial variance and spatio-temporal covariance in bank vole ce
nsus data suggest that this bias could be severe when small trapping grids
are used. Use of logged estimators of growth rate avoids this problem.
4. Using census data from non-randomly placed trapping grids that are small
er than twice the maximum range of natal dispersal to estimate population g
rowth rates can lead to negatively biased estimates, particularly at low po
pulation densities.
5. These three sources of bias are evaluated as explanations for scale-depe
ndent changes in the estimates of growth rates identified in populations of
snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus), bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) and
lemmings (Lemmus lemmus).