COMPARISON OF 6 DECOMPOSITION METHODS - APPLICATION TO AGGREGATE ENERGY INTENSITY FOR MANUFACTURING IN 10 OECD COUNTRIES

The work presented here compares six different methods of aggregate en ergy intensity decomposition applied to the same set of data, for the manufacturing sector in 10 OECD countries from 1970 to 1992. We compar e the six methods on the basis of the size of the residual term, the v ariability of that term, and the ease of implementation of the method; the comparison of these properties is necessary for the eventual deve lopment of a forecasting tool. Based on a comparison of the size of th e residual term and the variation in the term over time the adaptive w eighting Divisia, in either a fixed year or a rolling year specificati on, is most robust, exhibiting the smallest residual term with the lea st variation.