Predicting marital stability and divorce in newlywed couples

A longitudinal study with 95 newlywed couples examined the power of the Ora l History Interview to predict stable marital relationships and divorce. A principal components analysis of the interview with the couples (Time 1) id entified a latent variable, perceived marital bond, that was significant in predicting which couples would remain married or divorce within the first 5 years of their marriage. A discriminant function analysis of the newlywed oral history data predicted, with 87.4% accuracy, those couples whose marr iages remained intact or broke up at the Time 2 data collection point. The oral history data predicted with 81% accuracy those couples who remained ma rried or divorced at the Time 3 data collection point. This study offers su pport for causal linkages between perceptual biases and selective attention on the path of marriage.