Objectives-Previous projections of mortality from mesothelioma among French
men have used the age-generation method, based on the Poisson regression m
odel. In this study an alternative method to model mortality from mesotheli
oma was used to predict its future trend: this method was based on the risk
function that links this mortality to past exposure to asbestos, combined
with population exposure data.
Method-Data on past French asbestos imports were used to model the overall
past exposure to asbestos in men and assess two extreme scenarios (optimist
ic and pessimistic) for its future trends. The number of male deaths occurr
ing between the ages of 50 and 79, from 1997-2050, was then calculated with
the risk function for mesothelioma.
Results-The results showed that mortality from mesothelioma among French me
n aged 50-79 will continue to increase, reaching a peak averaging between 1
140 (optimistic scenario) and 1300 deaths (pessimistic scenario) annually a
round the years 2030 and 2040, respectively. No preventive measures applied
now will affect this trend before then. These results are similar to those
of two other predictions of mortality from mesothelioma among French men:
a peak around 2030 of 800-1600 deaths annually among men aged 25-89 years,
and a peak around 2020 of 1550 deaths annually among men aged 40-84.
Conclusions-Our results indicate that between 1997 and 2050, the mast optim
istic and pessimistic trends of future exposure will lead to the deaths fro
m mesothelioma of between 44 480 and 57 020 men, with a corresponding loss
of from 877 200 to 1 171 500 person-years of life.