PREDICTIVE FACTORS FOR EARLY MENARCHE IN TAIWAN

The rapid increase of breast cancer in Taiwan has prompted the authors to evaluate the predictive factors of early menarche among contempora ry Taiwanese girls. A total of 895 fourth-grade girls from eight eleme ntary schools in Taipei City and County were identified as a closed co hort from the first semester of 1993. Data were collected from self-ad ministered questionnaires and school records. A total of 799 girls who had not menstruated in the first year remained in the group through 1 994. The effects of potential predictive factors were assessed by logi stic regression. Among the 799 girls followed, 69 (8.6%) had first men struation between the fourth and fifth grades. Height, weight, body ma ss index and maternal early onset of menarche were positively related to the onset of menarche within the preceding year. Energy consumption during exercise showed only moderate association after being adjusted for age and weight. Calorie intake from junk food was not associated with early menarche within the preceding year. Poor interpersonal fami ly relationships and stressful life events also showed a moderate asso ciation with early menarche. The data obtained supported the hypothesi s that height, weight, body mass index and maternal early menarche are positive predictive factors of early menarche. The effects of exercis e and childhood stress are less prominent.