The fall and future of Newfoundland's cod fishery

The 1992 collapse of the northern cod undermined a centuries-old way of lif e in Newfoundland. This ecological change has had broad social consequences , especially the loss of livelihoods for people and places that possess few alternative resources. Using a biology-based model, we explore possible pa ths to fishery recovery under a range of policy scenarios. Recovery could t ake decades, even under an absolute fishing ban. Recovery with substantial growth in jobs can be achieved under "precautionary" low-fishing policies. High-fishing policies initially create more jobs, bur eventually crash the resource. Interactions between social and biological systems create a polic y trap. Developments since the 1992 moratorium show the force of this trap and offer an explanation for why no recovery has yet been seen. Model resul ts highlight the importance of level and rime, as specifics that give conte nt to the widely discussed goal of sustainability.