Im. Kettles et C. Tarnocai, Development of a model for estimating the sensitivity of Canadian peatlands to climate warming, GEOGR PHYS, 53(3), 1999, pp. 323-338
Under current scenarios of increasing greenhouse gases, the expected increa
ses in global temperatures have the potential to affect, in many areas, the
peatlands that now cover 14 % of the soil area of Canada. A model for esti
mating peatland sensitivity to climate warming was developed using publishe
d information on the current state of climate, vegetation, and permafrost t
ogether with the changes expected with a doubling of CO2. Calculations base
d on this sensitivity model and data for the areal extent and carbon conten
t of organic soils in Canada, show that approximately 60 % of the area of C
anadian peatlands is expected to be severely to extremely severely affected
by climate warming. These peatlands, which are deemed most sensitive to cl
imate warming, also contain 53 % of the 154 Gt of carbon found in organic s
oils.