Risk of extinction and categories of endangerment: perspectives from long-lived reptiles

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals is an important conservation tool, but the accuracy of predictions about risks of global extinction within 10 years or three generations is difficult to test objectively. In this study, we compare IUCN predictions with the results of attempts to derive realist ic scenarios that could lead to the global extinction of six species of lon g-lived reptiles. For three species, the IUCN predictions matched real even ts reasonably well but still overestimated risks of global extinction. For the other species, the predictions did not match real events. Reasons why d isparities occur are discussed.