The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing t
o a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numeric
al experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeco
nomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a lar
ge proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water str
ess and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in de
fining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct h
uman impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potent
ially important facet of the larger global change question.