Aims Screening for asymptomatic Type 2 diabetes mellitus has been advocated
on the grounds that diabetes is a common condition associated with increas
ed morbidity and mortality, but uncertainty remains about the impact of ear
ly treatment. This study aimed to determine whether the potential benefits
of screening are likely to outweigh the potential harm and to explore which
variables significantly influence the balance of benefit and harm resultin
g from screening.
Methods A decision analysis comparing the relative impact of using a single
fasting blood glucose screening test, between the ages of 45 and 60 years,
with the impact of not screening. The model weighs the increase in quality
adjusted life years (QALYs) from reduction in microvascular and cardiovasc
ular complications against the potential decrease in QALYs associated with
earlier diagnosis and treatment in an asymptomatic population.
Results The baseline model suggests a saving of 10 QALYs for every 10 000 i
ndividuals screened: a gain of four from postponed microvascular complicati
ons and 17 from avoided cardiovascular complications, as opposed to a loss
of 11 as a result of earlier diagnosis in screening detected cases. The bal
ance of benefit and harm is sensitive to baseline cardiovascular risk, the
effectiveness of cardiovascular interventions and the relative disutility a
ssigned to early diagnosis and treatment for an individual without symptoms
.
Conclusions The immediate disutility of earlier diagnosis and additional tr
eatment may be greater than the potential long-term benefit from postponing
microvascular complications. Screening decisions should therefore be based
largely on consideration of cardiovascular risk and the availability of ev
idence based interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk.