Fatality trends in United Nations peacekeeping operations, 1948-1998

Context The rising number of deaths among United Nations (UN) peacekeeping forces after the Cold War has made some troop-contributing countries hesita nt to participate in peacekeeping operations. While the number and scale of missions have increased, no data have demonstrated a parallel increase in risks to peacekeepers. Objective To determine the association of characteristics of UN peacekeepin g operations with risks and mortality rates among UN peacekeeping forces in both the Cold War and post-Cold War periods. Design, Setting, and Participants Descriptive analysis of 1559 personnel de aths during 49 UN peacekeeping missions from 1948-1998 based on the casualt y database maintained by Department of Peacekeeping Operations, UN Headquar ters. Main Outcome Measures Number and percentage of deaths by circumstance, tota l crude death rate, and crude death rate and relative risk of death by circ umstance (hostile acts, unintentional violence, and illness or other causes ) and time period (Cold War vs post-Cold War), geographic region, and natur e of peacekeeping response; and regression analysis of mission variables (s trength, duration, and humanitarian mandate) associated with total number o f deaths. Results More deaths have occurred among UN peacekeeping forces in the past decade alone than in the previous 40 years of UN peacekeeping (807 vs 752), but crude death rates did not differ significantly by time period (Cold Wa r vs post-Cold War, 21.8 vs 21.2 deaths per 10 000 person-years; P = .58), level of peacekeeping response, or for geographic regions other than East E urope and Central America, where rates were lower (P < .001 for both region s). Unintentional violence accounted for 41.2% of deaths, followed by hosti le acts (36.1%), and illness or other causes (22.7%). Deaths from hostile a cts increased after the Cold War (relative risk [RR] 1.51; 95% confidence i nterval [CI], 1.22-1.88), while rates for deaths caused by unintentional vi olence decreased (RR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.94) but remain high, particularl y in the Middle East and Asia (RR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.15-1.69). Regression ana lysis showed a significant association between number of deaths and the str ength (P < .001) and duration (P < .001) of a peacekeeping mission. Conclusion The increase in number of deaths among UN peacekeeping personnel since 1990 can be attributed to the increased number and scale of missions after the Cold War rather than increased RR of death. Post-Cold War peacek eeping personnel have a higher risk of dying from hostile acts in missions where more force is required. In missions providing or facilitating humanit arian assistance, both the RR of deaths from all causes and deaths from hos tile acts are increased.