The cognitive calculus of foreign policy decision making - An experimentalassessment

The cognitive calculus theory of foreign policy decision making is an attem pt to bridge the gap between two research orientations in the international relations literature: outcome validity and process validity. The cognitive calculus theory models the mental calculations of foreign policy decision making with the premise that an individual conducts the decision-making pro cess and the model should therefore represent his or her capabilities. An e xperiment tested a few of the model's derivations concerning the effects of the quality of information on process and choice parameters. The results s upport major aspects of the cognitive calculus theory. Relevant items are a ttended to more carefully than irrelevant items and speed up the decision p rocess. Furthermore, the valence of the relevant items disposes the choice of a corresponding option. The consequences of plugging the information set used in the experiment into the mathematical model of cognitive calculus s how that human behavior parallels the model's predictions.