IMPACT OF FUTURE CIGARETTE-SMOKING SCENARIOS ON MORTALITY OF THE ADULT-POPULATION IN THE UNITED-STATES, 2000-2050

The prevalence of cigarette smoking in the United States has declined over the past few decades. However, some leveling-off in prevalence ra tes has been observed in recent years, and the rate for teenagers and young adults has even turned upward. This paper considers four alterna tive scenarios of future cigarette smoking patterns in the United Stat es for the population 25 and over and measures the impact these differ ent scenarios would have on excess mortality due to smoking and on the sex and age distributions of deaths. Scenarios reflecting higher leve ls of smoking prevalence produce considerably more deaths than scenari os tied to lower levels. As many as two and one-half million excess de aths would take place in the decade of the 2020's if a high prevalence , rather than low prevalence, assumption proves correct. Even when a c onstant prevalence, assumption proves correct. Even when a constant pr evalence assumption is compared with a moderately-declining prevalence assumption, as many as one million excess deaths would be generated d uring that decade alone. Lowering smoking prevalence rates would also change the population sex ratio by reducing deaths for males more than deaths for females, and by contributing to the aging of the populatio n. The results are interpreted in terms of the overall impact of smoki ng on mortality and with regard to public and private policy decisions related to cigarette smoking.