Between 1981 and 1985 the Austrian National Forest Inventory (ANF) establis
hed a set of 5500 clusters, each with four permanent plots covering all Aus
trian forests. After the first remeasurement between 1986 and 1990 models w
ere developed to predict tree growth, mortality and the behavior of forest
owners in harvesting timber. A set of logistic equations describes the prob
ability for a given stand to exhibit intermediate harvesting, single-tree s
election or final clear cutting. Independent variables were either continuo
us or categorical, describing: (i) regional units such as provinces, (ii) t
ypes of ownership (groups of ownership sizes), (iii) site factors (elevatio
n and slope), and (iv) stand characteristics (species mixture, density, mea
n diameter). Timber removals on the plots are recorded by five relative dia
meter at breast height (dbh)-classes. Removal percentages differ by elevati
on, harvesting categories, and tree species groups. Timber harvest forecast
s and their spatial arrangement over Austria in the following four 5-year p
eriods were made available to the public using computer software. In 1997 d
ata of the second inventory remeasurements were available and thus the fore
casts for this period could be evaluated. When forecast units are large eno
ugh, deviations from the model are either small or can be explained by a di
fferent timber market scenario and/or a general socio-economical scenario.
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