Probabilistic modelling of safe crack growth and estimation of the durability of structures

Probabilistic models of crack growth are considered at the macro-level of m aterial deformation. These probabilistic models have parameters that can be determined from a fracture mechanics approach. Results from statistical an alyses of defects in welded joints show that it is possible to use a two-pa rameter Weibull distribution as a basic model for the distribution of defec t size. On the basis of a Monte Carlo numerical simulation of crack growth, one can construct complete probabilistic diagrams for structural integrity . These diagrams are the basis for designing structures containing defects.