The operational activities of cells are based on an awareness of their curr
ent state, coupled to a programmed response to internal and external cues i
n a context-dependent manner. One key goal of functional genomics is to dev
elop analytical methods for delineating the ways in which the individual ac
tions of genes are integrated into our understanding of the increasingly co
mplex systems of organelle, cell, organ, and organism. This paper describes
a novel approach to assess the codetermination of gene transcriptional sta
tes based upon statistical evaluation of reliably informative subsets of da
ta derived from large-scale simultaneous gene expression measurements with
cDNA microarrays. The method finds associations between the expression patt
erns of individual genes by determining whether knowledge of the transcript
ional levels of a small gene set can be used to predict the associated tran
scriptional state of another gene. To test this approach for identification
of the relevant contextual elements of cellular response, we have modeled
our approach using data from known gene response pathways including ionizin
g radiation and downstream targets of inactivating gene mutations. This app
roach strongly suggests that evaluation of the transcriptional status of a
given gene(s) can be combined with data from global expression analyses to
predict the expression level of another gene. With data sets of the size cu
rrently available, this approach should be useful in finding sets of genes
that participate in particular biological processes. As larger data sets an
d more computing power become available, the method can be extended to vali
dating and ultimately identifying biologic (transcriptional) pathways based
upon large-scale gene expression analysis. (C) 2000 Academic Press.