Spatial variations in major US hurricane activity: Statistics and a physical mechanism

The authors provide a statistical and physical basis for understanding regi onal variations in major hurricane activity along the U.S. coastline on lon g timescales. Current statistical models of hurricane activity are focused on the frequency of events over the entire North Atlantic basin. The except ion is the lead author's previous work, which models the occurrence of hurr icanes over the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and the southeast U.S. coast separately. Here the authors use statistics to analyze data from historica l and paleoclimatic records to expand this work. In particular, an inverse correlation in major hurricane activity across latitudes at various timesca les is articulated. When activity is above normal at high latitudes it tend s to be below normal at low latitudes and vice versa. Past research, paleoc limatic records, and historical data hint at the potential of using the Nor th Atlantic oscillation (NAO) as an indicator of where storms will likely t rack over long timescales. An excited (relaxed) NAO is associated with high er (lower) latitude recurving (nonrecurving) storms. The Gulf (East) Coast is more susceptible to a major hurricane strike during a relaxed(excited) N AG.