Courts as casinos? An empirical investigation of randomness and efficiencyin civil litigation

For a variety of reasons, the U.S. legal system has been accused of perform ing poorly because of the haphazard way in which courts assess liability an d award damages. This article examines the relation of court awards to the pretrial expectations of litigants and their attorneys and to measurable, e conomically relevant damages. Court awards are highly predictable, as varia nce in expectations explains much of the variance in awards. In addition, a wards are significantly related to both medical costs and property damage. The hypothesis of a highly unpredictable court system is conclusively rejec ted.