This paper compares the timeliness and accuracy of (confidential) governmen
t assessments of bank condition against market evaluations of large U.S. ba
nk holding companies. We find that supervisors and bond rating agencies bot
h acquire some information that would help the other group forecast changes
in bank condition. In contrast, supervisory assessments and equity market
indicators are not strongly interrelated. Furthermore, supervisory assessme
nts are generally less accurate than either stock or bond market indicators
in predicting future changes in performance, except when those assessments
derive from a recent on-site inspection visit. To some extent, these findi
ngs are consistent with the various parties' differing incentives.