Objective: The objective of this study was to assess baseline levels of dep
ression as a risk factor for stroke among white and black men and women. Me
thods: A population-based cohort of 6095 stroke-free white and black men an
d women aged 25 to 74 years in the NHANES I Epidemiologic Followup Study we
re followed for an average of 16 years to a maximum of 22 years. The associ
ation between stroke and baseline self-reported depressive symptomatology w
as analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for baseline ag
e, race, sex, education, smoking status, body mass index, alcohol use, nonr
ecreational physical activity, serum cholesterol level, history of diabetes
, history of heart disease, and systolic blood pressure. Hospital records a
nd death certificates were used to identify stroke cases; a total of 483 ca
ses were identified. Results: In age-adjusted models for all persons, white
men, white women, and black persons of both sexes, depression was predicti
ve of stroke. In risk-adjusted models for all persons (relative risk (RR) =
1.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.30-2.31) and for white men (RR = 1.
68, 95% CI = 1.02-2.75), depression remained predictive of stroke. For whit
e women, depression (RR = 1.52, 95% CI = 0.97-2.38) reached borderline sign
ificance (p = .07). For black persons, depression (RR = 2.60, 95% CI = 1.40
-4.80) demonstrated a higher risk of stroke. A series of supplemental analy
ses also supported the association between depression and stroke. Conclusio
ns: Depression is predictive of stroke across all strata. This nationally r
epresentative study gives evidence of a prospective association between dep
ression and stroke.