Short-term forecasting of solar radiation: A statistical approach using satellite data

Short-term forecasting of solar irradiance is an important issue for many f ields of solar energy applications. As the solar surface irradiance can be inferred from satellite measurements with a high temporal and spatial resol ution, we use satellite images as a data source for forecasting. The satell ite data provide information on cloudiness, the most important atmospheric parameter for surface irradiance. This paper describes the application of a statistical method to detect the motion of cloud structures from satellite images. Extrapolating the temporal development of the cloud situation, sol ar radiation can be predicted For time scales from 30 min up to 2 h. The fo recasts are evaluated with respect to accuracy and an example for the appli cation of the forecast algorithm to predict PV power output is presented. ( C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.