Determinism and backcasting in future studies

In this paper, four frequently cited approaches to future studies are criti cised. We use examples mainly from the field of transport research. The fir st approach is the tendency to try to establish cyclic behaviour in socio-t echnical changes. The second is the view that transport and communication a re positively correlated. The third is the so-called 'hypothesis of constan t travel time', according to which, the average daily travel time of a popu lation is more or less stable. The fourth is the alleged causal relationshi p between urban density and petrol use. The use of these approaches is criticised for a number of reasons, among ot hers for over-simplifying the underlying mechanisms and for being too deter ministic. In cases where drastic change is needed, current trends must be b roken, but perhaps through measures other than those indicated by the above approaches. In other words, the cited approaches may overlook interesting opportunities and fail to urge necessary action. Backcasting is put forward as a more promising approach, especially for sit uations where great change is needed, However, it has been found in this st udy that backcasting and different forecasting approaches an complementary. The argument is that backcasting is mainly appropriate where current trend s art: leading towards an unfavourable state. Therefore, forecasting method s are necessary because they inform the backcaster when backcasting is requ ired. Finally, the paper discusses the use of different models in planning, prima rily in the context of their role in the path analyses of backcasting scena rios. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.