Two-level security management and the prospects for new democracies: A simulation analysis

Most new democracies face serious internal, ethnic/separatist conflicts; in addition, some face international threats. The literature on the growth of democracy in the global system and its impact on world politics does not f ully account for the dual threats all states must address in managing their security. Based on theoretical work by Starr (1994) which describes the "c ommon logic" of conflict processes in war and revolution, we outline a mode l of how states respond to security threats from both external and internal sources. Using computer simulation, we analyze the model and evaluate the relative importance for state security of factors such as system size, numb ers of democracies in the system, extraction/allocation strategy pursued by new democracies, and government legitimacy level. Our results show that ne w democracies thrive in systems that are predominantly democratic. Also, al ly support can provide crucial resources for new democracies facing interna l threats. Finally, "endangered" democracies can recover security by attemp ting to buy off domestic threats rather than deter them, and by improving l egitimacy.