Democracy and peace: Reply to Oneal and Russett

The criticism of James, Solberg and Wolfson (JSW) (1999) by Oneal and Russe tt (OR) is not responsive to the methodological issues at stake. JSW argued that war is an endogenous feature of the world political and economic syst em. If its causes are to be measured, it must be as a structural equation i n a simultaneous system. Wedded to the idea that "democracies never fight e ach other, OR rely on a single equation to justify their view. JSW claim th at such an equation may be an ad hoc reduced form with no causal implicatio ns unless the equation is explicitly identified as a structural equation. J SW expand the model to explain democracy and conflict as two endogenous var iables. JSW do not claim to have discovered the true relationships between these variables by their minimal expansion of the structural relation. They do show that unless these (and other) variables are treated as part of a s ystem, the results are unstable, contradictory, of minimal size and not a r eliable guide to public policy.