LOSS OF LOAD COSTS IN GENERATING CAPACITY RELIABILITY EVALUATION

This paper presents a new methodology to calculate loss of load cost ( LOLC) indices in generating systems. It is demonstrated that all previ ously proposed methods for evaluating LOLC indices are, in fact, appro ximations. Sequential Monte Carlo simulation: representing all possibl e chronological aspects, is used to calculate the probability distribu tion of the LOLC index. It is shown how the LOLC index, expressed in d ollars per year, and the risk of not getting it, expressed as a probab ility or percentage, can be used in the expansion planning of generati on systems. Both parameters, LOLC and risk, are established rt priori as targets. Case studies with the IEEE Reliability Test system and the Brazilian Southeastern System are presented and discussed. (C) 1997 E lsevier Science S.A.