Parameters such as pH, concentrations of Cl-, turbidity, NH3-N, CODCr and B
OD5 (simplified as COD and BOD respectively in the following text) in leach
ate generated in the large-scale testing landfill unit and closed landfill
units at Shanghai Refuse Landfill were monitored from April 1995 to October
1998. The mathematical simulation formula between these parameters and ref
use age were established based on the data obtained from the testing landfi
ll unit and justified by the data obtained at the closed landfill units fro
m 1989 to 1993. The long-term predictions for the leachate concentrations f
or the Landfill were made using the mathematical simulation formula establi
shed. It was predicted that the COD and BOD may be reached to the strictest
standard for pollution control on municipal solid wastes landfill in China
, i.e., COD < 100 mg L-1 and BOD < 30 mg L-1, after 15 yr natural attenuati
on. The time predicted for NH3-N concentrations to reach the discharging st
andard, 15 mg L-1, was found to be at least 23-26 yr or even longer. The pr
edictions for concentrations of Cl-, turbidity, and pH values in leachate a
re also given. The natural attenuation of Cl- is the slowest and might be d
ecreased to 200 mg Cl- L-1, the agricultural irritation standard, after at
least 58 yr.