Pe. Tetlock, Cognitive biases and organizational correctives: Do both disease and cure depend on the politics of the beholder?, ADM SCI QUA, 45(2), 2000, pp. 293-326
The study reported here assessed the impact of managers' philosophies of hu
man nature on their reactions to influential academic claims and counter-cl
aims of when human judgment is likely to stray from rational-actor standard
s and of how organizations can correct these biases. Managers evaluated sce
narios that depicted decision-making processes at micro, meso, and macro le
vels of analysis: alleged cognitive biases of individuals, strategies of st
ructuring and coping with accountability relationships between supervisors
and employees, and strategies that corporate entities use to cope with acco
untability demands from the broader society. Political ideology and cogniti
ve style emerged as consistent predictors of the value spins that managers
placed on decisions at all three levels of analysis. Specifically, conserva
tive managers with strong preferences for cognitive closure were most likel
y (a) to defend simple heuristic-driven errors such as overattribution and
overconfidence and to warn of the mirror-image mistakes of failing to hold
people accountable and of diluting sound policies with irrelevant side-obje
ctives; (b) to be skeptical of complex strategies of structuring or coping
with accountability and to praise those who lay down clear rules and take d
ecisive stands; (c) to prefer simple philosophies of corporate governance (
the shareholder over stakeholder model) and to endorse organizational norms
such as hierarchical filtering that reduce cognitive overload on top manag
ement by short-circuiting unnecessary argumentation. Intuitive theories of
good judgment apparently cut across levels of analysis and are deeply groun
ded in personal epistemologies and political ideologies.