Associations of weight change and weight variability with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the Chicago Western Electric Company Study

Few studies of associations between weight loss or weight fluctuations and mortality have been sufficiently long term to permit exclusion of early dea ths for a portion of follow-up long enough to eliminate likely effects of i llness-related weight toss. This study examined associations of the Variati on (standard deviation and standard deviation about the trend (slope)) and trend (weight lass or weight gain) in body mass index (weight (kg)/height ( m(2)) between 1958 and 1966 (minimum of five measurements) with subsequent 25-year mortality among 1,281 men originally aged 40-56 years from the Chic ago Western Electric Company Study. In multivariate Cox regression models t hat included two slope variables representing weight loss and weight gain a nd each variability measure separately, weight lass and weight gain were si gnificantly related to 15-year mortality but weight variability was not. Re lative risks for cardiovascular disease mortality were 1.25 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.45) and 1.14 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.33), respectively, fo r weight loss and weight gain slopes larger by 0.12 kg/m(2) per year; corre sponding relative risks for all-cause mortality were 1.23 (95% CI: 1.10, 1. 38) and 1.15 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.29), respectively. For follow-up years 16-25, none of these weight variables were significantly related to mortality. Th ese results indicate that an association between weight loss and mortality may not persist beyond 15 years, and that weight variability may not be rel ated to mortality independently of weight loss or weight gain.