Civil rights liberalism and the suppression of a republican political realignment in the United States, 1972 to 1996

Arguably the most dramatic trend in U.S. public opinion during the past SO years has been Americans' liberalizing attitudes toward the civil rights of African Americans, women, and more recently, gays and lesbians. Do these c hanging attitudes have any behavioral or organizational effects, or are the y of little consequence for understanding social and political changes sinc e the 1960s? While art influential strain of research has questioned the ca usal significance of trends in civil rights attitudes, past studies have no t developed a systematic test of relevant hypotheses. This study presents s uch a test analyzing the effects of trends in civil rights attitudes on an important type of behavior (presidential vote choice) and on a major type o f organization (political parties). Guided by theories of issue voting and political realignment, results show that changing attitudes have had signif icant behavioral and organizational effects on vote choice and election out comes since 1972. In particular; the margins of Republican presidential vic tories in the 1980s were suppressed by liberal trends in attitudes, while D emocratic presidential victories in the 1990s depended upon these trends. T hese findings lead to a better understanding of the substantial but poorly understood effects of changing attitudes toward civil rights and of the wid ely debated scenario of a Republican political realignment.