Evaluation of seismic slope-performance models using a regional case study

This paper compares four permanent displacement models based on Newmark's s liding-block analogy for assessing regional seismic slope-performance, The models vary primarily by the ground-motion descriptor used to correlate wit h Newmark displacement, The first uses peak ground-acceleration (PGA), The second uses PGA but normalizes displacements by predominant period and equi valent cycles. The third uses Arias intensity, The fourth calculates cumula tive displacements from double-integrating simulated earthquake accelerogra ms. The models are implemented in a GIS to characterize seismic slope-perfo rmance for the Oakland East quadrangle near San Francisco, California. The resulting slope-performance maps are compared visually and through statisti cal analysis to expose potential differences and assess the effects of usin g a particular approach within a decision-making context. These maps were c reated for the purpose of comparison and are not suitable for use as critic al decision-making tools. The models forecast notably different levels of s lope-performance, with the PGA-based models predicting the greatest Newmark displacement on average, Thus, considering the variety of slope-performanc e models, it is suggested that practitioners avoid reliance on a single mod el, Instead, multiple models can be implemented in a GIS framework to gain a better perspective of the potential hazard and make a more informed decis ion.