Changes in land use and agriculture have occurred frequently during the las
t millennium in Europe. Now at the start of the millennium a review of how
and why changes took place may lead to a better understanding of these deve
lopments. This insight based on scientific analysis and understanding may b
e combined with explorative studies to gain a view on future possibilities.
Such an explorative study for Europe is described. It demonstrates that co
ntraction of agricultural area in the coming decades is inevitable and in l
ine with an historic development where periods of expansion and contraction
of agricultural area were intermingled. The new millennium will start with
a period of changes in land use to fulfill societal goals in an optimum wa
y. The research agenda that helps to define optimal land use and agricultur
al methods is based on this analysis and helps to develop the policy agenda
for the near future. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.