Uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modelling - a stochastic analysis of well-protection zones

The paper reviews the problems of uncertainty in the definition of aquifer properties and the scale-dependence of dispersion with specific regard to w ell-capture zones. Stochastic methods have been developed in response to th e problems of characterizing aquifer properties for contaminant transport m odelling, as they provide a formal framework for the treatment of uncertain ty. Their use for well-capture zone analysis, however, has been neglected s o far. In this paper a stochastic numerical modelling procedure is presente d, based on conditional geostatistical simulation of fine-scale aquifer str ucture, which is shown to reproduce stochastic analytical properties. The m ethodological approach is applied to the analysis of uncertainty in well-pr otection zones, and implications of the results for groundwater management are discussed. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.