The timing of divorce: Predicting when a couple will divorce over a 14-year period

This paper investigates the predictability of divorce in a long-term, prosp ective longitudinal study. Past research has indicated that 2 periods can b e considered the most critical for the survival of marriages: (a) the first 7 years of marriage, during which half of all divorces are known to occur, and (b) the period during which the first child reaches 14 years of age, w hich has been suggested as a low point for marital satisfaction in the life course. lit the present study, interaction variables at Time I (both durin g conflict and in an events-of-the-day discussion following separation of t he spouses for at least 8 hours) and noninteractive variables were used to predict divorcing both early and later in the marriage. A different set of variables predicted early divorcing than predicted later divorcing. Negativ e affect during conflict predicted early divorcing, but it did not predict Eater divorcing. By contrast, the lack of positive affect in events-of-the- day and conflict discussions predicted later divorcing, but it did not pred ict early divorcing. Prediction was possible over the Ii-year period of the study with a model that included marital satisfaction, thoughts of marital dissolution, and affective interaction in both conversations. The model pr edicted divorce with 93% accuracy.