Integrating yield and shortage management under multiple uncertainties

Citation
Mw. Jenkins et Jr. Lund, Integrating yield and shortage management under multiple uncertainties, J WATER RES, 126(5), 2000, pp. 288-297
Citations number
29
Categorie Soggetti
Environment/Ecology,"Civil Engineering
Journal title
JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE
ISSN journal
07339496 → ACNP
Volume
126
Issue
5
Year of publication
2000
Pages
288 - 297
Database
ISI
SICI code
0733-9496(200009/10)126:5<288:IYASMU>2.0.ZU;2-5
Abstract
An economic-engineering modeling approach is presented for integrating urba n water supply reliability analysis with shortage management options such a s dry year option and spot market water transfers, water reuse, and long- a nd short-term water conservation. The integrated model uses a probability p lotting position formula to link supply-side yield simulation to probabilis tic shortage management optimization. The approach can help joint planning of supply and demand management and estimate the economic value of expandin g infrastructure and changing institutional constraints. Results from a cas e study show that jointly managing supply capacity and operating rule decis ions with shortage management decisions within a risk analysis framework ca n create significant economic savings. The importance of hydrologic and ins titutional uncertainties is explored. Tuning supply system and reservoir op erating policies to match the seasonal and cost characteristics of availabl e shortage management measures is shown to be essential to least-cost plann ing.