The task of predicting professional performance during several decades of p
ractice on the basis of any process which takes place a decade earlier is a
virtual impossibility. Basically most Western medical schools seek some de
gree of academic excellence as predicted by school grades and pre-admission
examinations. The data suggest that one need not be in the top 1-2% academ
ically for success in medicine. One would therefore do better to place grea
ter emphasis on the key personal qualities desirable in physicians in spite
of even greater difficulty in assessing these factors. It seems that train
ed interviewers using a semi-structured interview can improve the selection
process at a considerable expenditure of manpower. Selection for specialty
training has heretofore not attempted to seek to identify those qualities
specific for each specialty. Application of techniques for this purpose may
be the desired trend in the coming years.