On the stock market recurrence

We analyze the return of the S & P 500 index and characterize its evolution as being typical of a low-dimensional recurrent deterministic system. The first Poincare return time of the chaotic logistic mapping trajectories is used to model the return evolution. The efficiency of the model is demonstr ated by daily predictions over an interval of time since January, 1950 of t his index, and long-term prediction for a period of 150 days. (C) 2000 Else vier Science B.V. All rights reserved.