Does peer review predict the performance of research projects in health sciences?

Peer review is a basic component of the scientific process, but its perform ance has seldom been evaluated systematically. To determine whether pre-app roval characteristics of research projects predicted the performance of pro jects, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of all 2744 single-centre research projects financed by the Spanish Health Research Fund since 1988 a nd completed before 1996. Peer review scores of grant applications were sig nificant predictors of performance of funded projects, and the likelihood o f production was also higher for projects with a basic research component, longer duration, higher budget or a financed research fellow. Funding agenc ies should monitor their selection process and assess the performance of fu nded projects to design future strategies in supporting health sciences res earch.